CLIMATE CHANGE: How Do You Sell Florida Keys Real Estate That May Soon Be Underwater?

Back in the summer of 2009, there was a big meeting up in Marathon about climate change and its implications for the Florida Keys. Officials of the Nature Conservancy and others, quoting reports from international panels of scientists, predicted that by 2100, the Keys will have lost about 59,000 acres of real estate valued at $ 11 billion to rising sea levels. And that, they said, was the best case scenario. The worst case scenario would be that sea level could rise by more than 28 inches, submerging 154,000 acres valued at $ 43 billion.

The spin, in case you haven’t heard, is that the climate is warming and that the polar ice cap is melting, which is causing sea levels to rise. Indeed, sea level here in the Keys has already risen by 9 inches over the last 100 years, according to an Associated Press article published in July of last year– that rise reportedly documented by a tidal gauge operating in the Keys since before the Civil War. Also, perhaps coincidentally, tidal flooding here, once a periodic inconvenience, has become almost routine. Just ask the owners of businesses on the northern end of Duval Street. But having said that, it is also important to report that a large number or scientists and weather experts believe that the Keys-going-underwater scenario is being overstated.

In any event, as a result of that meeting in Marathon, the Monroe County Commission appointed an 11-member climate change advisory committee. Keys officials also joined officials of other South Florida counties to address the potential affects of climate change here and how residents might cope. Reports of those committees focused primarily on recommendations concerning elevation of new buildings and infrastructure, protecting fresh water supplies, public transportation, as well as saving native plants and wildlife.

Of course, real estate agents here are absolutely horrified that this discussion is even taking place. Who the hell is going to pay big bucks for a property that might be underwater in just a few decades? But no need for worry– at least for the moment. Experts who are studying the potential affect of climate change on Florida real estate say that would-be buyers may not catch on for 10 or 20 years. But many eventually will catch on, sooner or later. According to an article in the Miami Herald last November, William Hardin, a professor of real estate at Florida International University, is telling his students, “If you believe in global warming, you’re going to have an issue being in real estate in South Florida.” In the same article, Mitchell Chester, an attorney in Plantation, warns that property sellers could be sued if they don’t warn prospective buyers that the property is endangered by rising sea levels.

Such a warning might scare some buyers away– but not all. The most creative sales agents will be able to sell endangered property right up to the very end. It’s not like it hasn’t been done before. Back in the 1920s, lots of Miami real estate agents got very rich selling swamp land sight unseen– and they didn’t even have the Internet. Also keep in mind that a huge percentage of Americans simply don’t pay much attention to what’s going on. They either do not know about or believe in climate change. This represents a huge market of potential buyers. And sellers exploiting this market don’t even have to feel guilty. After all, climate change is just a myth, right?

CLARIFICATION: Over the past several months, I have written a couple of columns addressing the climate change controversy. I hope I have made my opinion clear: The controversy is not whether or not the climate is changing. It is changing and it has been for millions of years. The controversy concerns whether or not man can do much of anything to keep Mother Nature from doing whatever she wants to do.

AND A FINAL NOTE: Response from real estate agents and developers is welcome ([email protected]). Please include in your response what you are telling prospective buyers about the potential effects of climate change here.

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Dennis Reeves Cooper, Ph.D

Dennis Reeves Cooper founded Key West The Newspaper (The Blue Paper) in 1994 and was editor and publisher until he retired in 2012.